Damate completed a project on mathematical modeling of sales

Turkey production

Damate Group has completed the development and implementation of the project on mathematical modeling of sales. The automated IT solution based on a mathematical model and machine learning allows predicting sales and balance product orders. Investments in the project amounted to 35.5 million rubles. Damate expects to receive additional profit in the amount of up to 61 million rubles per year only due to more accurate planning of orders.

The project was implemented by a specially created mathematical laboratory (MathLab), which brought together specialists with mathematical education and experience in production optimization and data analysis.

The automated production planning system includes 2 blocks. The first is a forecasting unit, the purpose of which is to build an optimal forecast of demand and a production plan in the short term, taking into account limited production capacities and live weight volumes. The mathematical model for constructing a high-precision demand forecast includes algorithms for analyzing many factors, including: order history, plans for new products and customers, current orders and promotions.

The second is a balancing unit for selecting the optimal cutting percentages, taking into account possible restrictions on raw meat, production and packaging capacities in each echelon for maximum confirmation of customer orders/forecasts according to priorities.

Before the launch of the project, sales forecasts in Damate were made manually by specialists and did not take into account many factors. Their accuracy was not high enough, and production was often underutilized, the efficiency and quality of orders balancing did not meet the company's needs at the current stage of development. In addition, in the presence of real orders, there is a task to determine priorities, which of them should be accepted and to what extent satisfied. At the same time, it was necessary to compare the importance of the client, marginality and profitability of orders.

The actual indicator of forecasting accuracy in the new system is a value of 85%. In the future, it is possible to increase the accuracy of forecasting by adding external factors to the calculation model that affect the order forecast, including: analysis of secondary sales, interaction with ecosystems of retail chains and other parameters.

Automation of business processes, accurate forecast and balancing of orders from customers allows planning the production of specific products, ordering the required volume of packaging, optimize the schedules of slaughter, freezing, promotions, etc. The introduction of new solutions enables Damate to use the plant's resources more efficiently, such as personnel and equipment, load production lines evenly, eliminate the human factor, and build long-term relationships with customers due to a higher degree of order coverage.

The project on mathematical modeling of sales was launched in the summer of 2021 on the basis of a turkey production and processing complex in Penza region. In the future, it will become an IT platform on the basis of which Damate plans to develop its own automated solutions in the field of sales forecasting.